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Mensaje de: toni41 Hora: 02/01/2026 11:21:21
Voleon Capital (the $7B quant fund) is losing $150-200M on their Oryzon short position and slowly ca..........
Voleon Capital (the $7B quant fund) is losing $150-200M on their Oryzon short position and slowly ca..........
Oryzon at 3.11€ implies:
? <15% Phase III success
? <$300M peak sales
? Complete failure
But data shows:
? 40-50% realistic Phase III success
? 1.6B€ peak sales potential
? Zero safety concerns
Market is 88% undervalued vs. fundamentals.
Voleon saw "technical reversal."
Market missed "rational re-pricing."
? <15% Phase III success
? <$300M peak sales
? Complete failure
But data shows:
? 40-50% realistic Phase III success
? 1.6B€ peak sales potential
? Zero safety concerns
Market is 88% undervalued vs. fundamentals.
Voleon saw "technical reversal."
Market missed "rational re-pricing."
5
Mensaje de: toni41 Hora: 02/01/2026 11:21:21
Voleon Capital (the $7B quant fund) is losing $150-200M on their Oryzon short position and slowly ca..........
Voleon Capital (the $7B quant fund) is losing $150-200M on their Oryzon short position and slowly ca..........
The clinical data is undeniably excellent:
PORTICO Fase IIb:
? p=0.0071 (30-40% better than p<0.05 baseline)
? Safety: Clean
? Mechanism validated
FRIDA Fase Ib (AML):
? 47% CR RCh in venetoclax-resistant patients
? ADMIRAL benchmark: 34%
? 38% better in harder population
This is NOT marginal. This is exceptional.
PORTICO Fase IIb:
? p=0.0071 (30-40% better than p<0.05 baseline)
? Safety: Clean
? Mechanism validated
FRIDA Fase Ib (AML):
? 47% CR RCh in venetoclax-resistant patients
? ADMIRAL benchmark: 34%
? 38% better in harder population
This is NOT marginal. This is exceptional.
5
Mensaje de: toni41 Hora: 02/01/2026 11:21:21
Voleon Capital (the $7B quant fund) is losing $150-200M on their Oryzon short position and slowly ca..........
Voleon Capital (the $7B quant fund) is losing $150-200M on their Oryzon short position and slowly ca..........
Let"s do the math on why Voleon is losing:
Current short: ~$200-250M at 3.11€
Price if PORTICO-2 works (45% prob): 10-12€ = -$300-500M LOSS
Price if PORTICO-2 fails (25% prob): 1.50€ = $35M gain
Expected value = 45%*(-$400M) 25%*( $35M) = NEGATIVE $170M
Why maintain 2.19% position with negative EV? Trapped capital.
Current short: ~$200-250M at 3.11€
Price if PORTICO-2 works (45% prob): 10-12€ = -$300-500M LOSS
Price if PORTICO-2 fails (25% prob): 1.50€ = $35M gain
Expected value = 45%*(-$400M) 25%*( $35M) = NEGATIVE $170M
Why maintain 2.19% position with negative EV? Trapped capital.
(1)
5
Mensaje de: toni41 Hora: 02/01/2026 11:21:21
Voleon Capital (the $7B quant fund) is losing $150-200M on their Oryzon short position and slowly ca..........
Voleon Capital (the $7B quant fund) is losing $150-200M on their Oryzon short position and slowly ca..........
Voleon increased their short to 2.73% in October 2025—just WEEKS before exceptional clinical data proved their thesis dead.
Now they"re at 2.19% and dropping fast.
This isn"t strategy. This is panic exit.
Now they"re at 2.19% and dropping fast.
This isn"t strategy. This is panic exit.
(1)
5
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